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Race, Retrospective Voting, and Disasters: The Re-Election of C. Ray Nagin Ater Hurricane Katrina
J. Celeste Lay*
Tulane University
* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: jlay{at}tulane.edu.
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Abstract |
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The 2006 New Orleans mayoral election provides a unique opportunity to examine the influence of a natural disaster on voting behavior. Theories of retrospective voting presume that voters will punish incumbents whose performance they deem unacceptable. To many Americans, Ray Nagin had done a poor job in handling Katrina. Theories of racial conflict and accommodation, however, contend that voters in urban elections base their choice primarily on racial group interests. This study shows that racial identity was a critical factor in vote choice. Although judgments of Nagins performance were important, many voters placed greater responsibility on the federal government for the response.
First published on November 18, 2008, doi:10.1177/1078087408326900
Urban Affairs Review 2009;44:645.
A more recent version of this article appeared on May 1, 2009

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