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Urban Affairs Review, Vol. 42, No. 5, 741-756 (2007)
DOI: 10.1177/1078087406296795

Did Overzealous Activists Destroy Housing Affordability in San Francisco?

A Time-Series Test of the Effects of Rezoning on Construction and Home Prices, 1967—1998

Karl Beitel

Service Employees International Union, Local 790 San Francisco

In this article, I use time-series models of construction and price levels in the San Francisco housing market to test claims that implementation of more strict zoning controls restricts housing construction and artificially inflates housing prices. The results do not support these claims. I argue that the primary barrier to new housing construction derives from the interaction of financial market variables, household search behavior, and the unique characteristics of urban land markets that in tandem act to constrain new construction to high-end luxury segments of the local housing market. Increasing the supply of affordable housing in San Francisco will therefore require large-scale public subsidies to compensate for the failure of the market to meet the pressing housing needs of low-to-moderate-income households.

Key Words: housing markets • housing prices • housing policy • rent gap • land use • urban planning • zoning


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