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Win, Place, Show

Public Opinion Polls and Campaign Contributions in a New York City Election

Barnard College and Columbia University

E. Scott Adler

University of Colorado, Boulder

Lincoln A. Mitchell

The Lapidus Group

The authors examine how the relative standing of candidates in public opinion polls during a primary campaign affects their ability to raise money. A theory is proposed that considers when individuals are most likely to contribute to the electoral campaigns of their most preferred candidate based on a rational model of political participation and concerns about a candidate’s likelihood of winning. The theory is then applied to the case of the 1989 New York City Democratic mayoral primary race. The data indicate that contributors are motivated to support candidates financially by the changing status of a candidate’s electoral prospects throughout the campaign.

Urban Affairs Review, Vol. 35, No. 4, 479-501 (2000)
DOI: 10.1177/10780870022184499


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